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A new report from Counterpoint Research forecasts that Apple’s iPhone 17 series will eclipse Samsung in worldwide smartphone shipments by 2025. The projection indicates Apple will ship approximately 243 million units, securing a 19.4% market share, narrowly exceeding Samsung’s anticipated 235 million shipments.

If realized, this would represent a significant shift in the market, marking the first time in 14 years that Apple has surpassed Samsung in phone shipments, according to Counterpoint’s analysis. Strong early performance of the iPhone 17 lineup, attributed in part to favorable tariff conditions, is driving this projection.

While the iPhone Air has faced a somewhat tepid reception and questions persist regarding Apple’s advancements in artificial intelligence, the overall iPhone 17 series is reportedly performing well. Further bolstering its position, Apple is rumored to be introducing a more affordable ’17e’ model in the spring, and the company may also unveil its first foldable iPhone in the coming years.